This Is a Bad Argument

It is time for another attack on one of my favorite fallacies.

Several times over the last week I've encountered the observation that Republicans are only complaining/suing/challenging in states that tipped narrowly blue--as if this proves that the claims of fraud are false.

But those are precisely the states one would expect Republicans to challenge--it is to their advantage to do so.  And merely because something is to someone's advantage does not mean that it is wrong for them to do or false for them to believe.

Frankly, arguments that purport to disprove something by asking cui bono when the bono and the cui are both patently obvious are garbage.  Cui bono is a great way to discredit an opponent rhetorically, for example, when the opponent turns out to be deriving some secret advantage through what he or she has claimed to be merely a good public policy measure.  But the trick works because the opponent has a real advantage, a real good they are (presumably) pursuing, which they have not admitted--which should lead one to reevaluate (though still not necessarily reject) their above-board arguments.  The trick works, in other words, because it is based on the dishonesty of the opponent who has been hiding something which the public should know.

But in these election challenges, no Republican making them hides the fact that they want Trump to win.  There's no secret here.

And even on the merits, setting aside the rhetorical component, the idea that red states should somehow have equal amounts of fraud, as if Wyoming has just as great a chance as flipping blue as Pennsylvania, is absurd.  Everyone knows that Wyoming is deep, deep red--and that's why, if (hypothetically!) you wanted to fraudulently flip a state for Biden, you would not pick Wyoming, but Pennsylvania.  Flipping Pennsylvania only makes Trumpsters suspicious.  Flipping Wyoming would make any person of good sense and good will suspicious--it would be foolish.

It would also be very difficult.  Red states are more likely to have Republican poll workers, who are going to be less likely to overlook the tossing out or adding in of borderline ballots.  No, if you were (hypothetically!) a Biden supporter who wanted to tip things illegally, you'd do it in a swing state.

(Incidentally, there's plenty of fraud in red states too.  In blood-red Missouri (for instance) St. Louis has notoriously posted dubious election results for decades.  But see above for why Republicans won't bother to challenge it--cui bono?--and why it's not enough to flip the state.)