How Do You Like Your Numbers, Sir? (III)

But there’s another way of putting those same numbers.

If there are 4,345 contagious cases in this metro area now, counting all the presymptomatics and the minority of asymptomatics who are likely to be contagious, and there are 1,000,000 people here all told, how many people would you have to meet on average before you met someone who has coronavirus and doesn’t know it?

If 4,345 x Q = 1,000,000, then Q = 230.15.

Round these parts, you have to meet an average of 230 people before you meet someone who’s sick, contagious, and doesn’t know it.

If you go to church, the grocery store, the post office, and the gym every day, you probably meet that many in a couple days—maybe even a day.

Suddenly 0.43% starts to sound bigger and 99.57% less safe.  It all depends on how you serve your numbers.