How Do You Like Your Numbers, Sir? (V)

There are probably details I’m overlooking in the number crunching that led to my one-out-of-230-people estimate for this area.  Every time I’ve had a discussion about coronavirus risks stats with another person—whether we tend to agree or not—I find that there are details I have thought to consider that they left out, and vice versa.

That makes questions like “Should we reopen schools?” exceedingly difficult to answer.  There is good data from other countries suggesting that the answer may be yes—see https://dontforgetthebubbles.com/evidence-summary-paediatric-covid-19-literature/ and, for an article on the topic, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks.  But the actual answer that different governors and districts give is going to depend on which countries they pick their numbers from, and how they serve up those numbers.